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| What will be the effects of the growing closeness in Islamic countries on India? |
When India became independent, West Asia was dominated by Europe and America and all independent countries in West Asia were anti-communist and pro-Western. All these countries remained in the American camp during the Cold War and when India under the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru decided not to go to any camp, the displeasure of the West was clearly visible. But now history is changing.
After the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, its distance from Saudi Arabia increased to the point of hostility. During this period, Saudi Arabia was openly involved in the US alliance against Iran in the Middle East, but now there is a new movement in West Asia.
Now a communist power, China, is expanding its influence in traditionally anti-communist West Asia. China has successfully tried to paint the color of friendship in the hostility of Saudi Arabia and Iran, as a result of which Iran and Saudi Arabia are going to restore diplomatic relations, and it seems that the whole of West Asia is coming out of the American hegemony.
Upheaval in the Islamic world
This is not limited to Saudi Arabia and Iran, but even before the announcement of the restoration of their diplomatic relations, a lot was going on that was out of the ordinary.
In April last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Saudi Arabia and then in June, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman visited Turkey.
Earlier in November 2021, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and current President of the United Arab Emirates visited Turkey and in February 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also visited the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were theoretically on the same stage in the regional conflict, while Turkey was on the opposite side. When the Arab Spring began in 2010, Erdogan's pro-Muslim Brotherhood Aq party supported political Islam.
This position of Erdogan was seen as a threat to the monarchy system in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were angry with Erdoğan's position, and in such a situation, the UAE and Saudi Arabia also remained against Turkey in the regional confrontation.
Turkey opposed the 2017-2021 blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia and its allies, and Erdogan also pointed fingers at the United Arab Emirates for a failed military coup in Turkey in 2016.
Last month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited the United Arab Emirates with his wife Asma al-Assad. Earlier in 2011, when the civil war started in Syria, the United Arab Emirates, like Saudi Arabia, was with the rebels and both countries wanted President Assad to leave power.
President Bashar al-Assad belongs to the Shiite religion and the majority of the Syrian population is Sunni. But it seems that these religious walls will also fall in the recent changes in West Asia.
Saudi Arabia is going to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League summit in Riyadh starting May 19.
From the position of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it is clear that Syria is going to end the isolation in its territory since 2011. Due to the Syrian crisis in the year 2011, mutual differences in the Arab world increased and in the same year, Syria was expelled from the Arab League. Then along with the Western countries, the Arab countries also started boycotting the Syrian president.
Meanwhile, since 2015, Yemen has been suffering from a bloody war between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Now this fight also seems to be ending and on Saturday, April 8, Saudi and Omani negotiators reached Sana'a, the capital of Yemen.
It is being said that the end of the war in Yemen can be announced before Eid. According to media reports, the agreement is ready. Accordingly, initially, the ceasefire will be extended, each other's prisoners will be released and then Sana'a Airport will also be opened. The embargo against Yemen will also be lifted to allow it access to the port. After that, the withdrawal of foreign forces from Yemen will begin.
Saudi Arabia's independent foreign policy?
Saudi Arabia's recent decisions show that it is not ready to work under the US. Saudi Arabia is now talking about a multi-polar world and it is taking bold decisions regardless of America.
Saudi Arabia wants to increase its influence in the Middle East and is engaged in ending hostilities with Iran. Saudi Arabia seems to be dramatically correcting its 'mistakes'.
Saudi Arabia is dealing with old rivals, negotiating with new enemies, and balancing superpowers. Saudi Arabia is making all these efforts to restore its economy.
It is being said that if Saudi Arabia conducts its foreign policy independently and succeeds in restoring regional stability through diplomacy, it will have a profound impact on West Asia.
For many years, Saudi Arabia's foreign policy was hostile to Iran, which resulted in the promotion of proxy wars in the entire region. For example, in the Middle East, only Iran was with Syria, while Saudi Arabia was with its Gulf allies against Bashar al-Assad.
Turkey was also with the West against Bashar al-Assad while Russia was with Bashar al-Assad and with the help of Russia and Iran, Assad was able to defeat the rebels in Syria.
ShahzThe Saudi intervention in Yemen failed to dislodge the Houthis from the capital Sanaa until the Houthis launched drone strikes inside Saudi Arabia.
About recent upheavals in West Asia, it is also being said that America's priority is now moving away from here. This is a good opportunity for China.
China has good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. In such a situation, China took the initiative to reduce the rivalry between the two and it was also in China's favor. Saudi Arabia is trying to strike a balance between superpowers like Russia, China, and the US.
Saudi Arabia did not join the Western sanctions against the Russian attack on Ukraine and on the other hand decided to cut oil production despite the unwillingness of the United States. Russia will directly benefit from the reduction in oil production as Russia is the world's largest energy exporter.
Despite this, Saudi Arabia has signed an agreement to buy Boeing aircraft worth 35 billion dollars from the United States. The United States wanted Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, but it set several conditions for this. On the other hand, there is China, which has been able to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Apart from this, the defense and trade partnership between Saudi Arabia and China is also increasing.
Where does India stand?
A lot is happening in West Asia, but where is India in this whole context? India's interests in West Asia are intertwined with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia being its third and fourth largest trading partners.
India depends on West Asia for its energy needs. Apart from this, about 9 million people from India work in the Gulf countries and earn billions of dollars and send them to the country. China is emerging as a major player in the region, but what is India doing?
Ashwini Mahapatra, a professor at the Center for West Asia Studies at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, also acknowledges that what is happening in West Asia is going to add to India's challenges.
Ashwini Mohapatra says that when the United States created the I2U2 along with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and India, it seemed that Saudi Arabia would also join it. But China surprisingly restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. India had no idea about this and it was a big surprise for India. If relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia improve on a sustainable basis, India will have to think differently. We saw the effect of this recently when India voted against Israel in the United Nations. India will no longer show much warmth towards Israel.
He further said 'I think it is difficult to restore trust between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran supports Hamas in Palestine, and Saudi Arabia is totally against it. Iran is also seen with the Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Arabia does not like it. The walls of Shia and Sunni are also not going to be broken so quickly.
Professor Muqtadar Khan of the University of Delaware, USA, who has a keen eye and understanding of international politics, says that India should think about why China is not able to do what it is doing here.
Professor Khan says that the direction in which India's internal politics is being taken is not going to benefit West Asia. The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) continues to issue statements about discrimination against Muslims in India. On the one hand, India talks about becoming the voice of the Global South, on the other hand, there seems to be a clash with the OIC. India should know that the entire OIC belongs to the Global South. Will India become the voice of this region by ousting the OIC?
Muqtadar Khan says that 'the readiness with which China is entering West Asia will create many difficulties for India in the coming days, but it seems that India is completely unaware of this.'
Rajan Kumar, associate professor at the Center for Central Asia and Russian Studies at JNU, disagrees that India is clueless.
Professor Rajan Kumar says that India is making many efforts at its level. Every country has its own border. We cannot compete with China in every way. There is a huge difference between China and India.
When China signed an agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, there was a strong reaction from India.
Indian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Arndam Bagchi said that India has good relations with many countries in West Asia and India has deep and enduring interests in the region. India has always advocated resolving disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was supposed to visit India in the first week of November last year, but he postponed the visit. Then in November, the G20 summit was held in Bali, Indonesia. The Saudi crown prince was supposed to go to Bali via India but he reached Bali directly.
The Saudi crown prince also visited South Korea after attending the G20 summit in Bali. He also signed many contracts in South Korea. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also went to attend the G20 summit in Bali, but he canceled there was no formal bilateral meeting with the Crown Prince on the occasion of S. About a month after the G20 summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia.
India's problems in West Asia
Pakistan is said to use the Islamic card against India in West Asia.
Ranjit Gupta, a retired Indian Foreign Service officer and member of the Board of National Security Advisers, said in an article on the Middle East Institute website that Pakistan is getting support from the West, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran. In the year 1969, India had to face an unnecessary humiliation. In 1969, the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Morocco also invited India to participate in the summit of Muslim countries in Rabat, the capital of Morocco.
After this meeting, the Organization of Muslim Countries became the OIC. After the inaugural session, India was not allowed to attend the summit as Pakistan threatened to leave the summit. Since then, Pakistan has always been successful in advancing the anti-India agenda in the OIC.
When Saddam Hussein was in command of Iraq, Iraq was considered India's closest ally in West Asia.
Ranjit Gupta writes that 'Iraq was India's most reliable ally during the Cold War. India had launched dozens of projects in Iraq and trained its troops there. Iraq has been and still is India's largest supplier of oil.
Saddam Hussain also supported India in the case of Pakistan. Both India and Iraq were close to the Soviet Union. In West Asia, Iraq's closeness to India and the Soviet Union was viewed negatively.
But when the Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan in 1979, the alliance of Pakistan, America, and Saudi Arabia strengthened against it, which also affected India's interests in West Asia.
Before and after the Islamic Revolution, Iran sided with Pakistan more than India. Iran, being an Islamic country, has been supporting Pakistan in Kashmir and other issues despite being against the West.
India is facing external challenges in West Asia. Anwar Alam, the senior fellow at the Policy Perspective Foundation, says that with the creation of Pakistan, India permanently lost its geopolitical reach in Central Asia and West Asia. Due to the creation of Pakistan, India was cut off from Central Asia and West Asia by land border.
Anwar Alam wrote that Pakistan has a strong political alliance with Islamic West Asia. Pakistan continues to mobilize this alliance through an Islamic identity, describing itself as an oppressed and military partner. India's media strategy is also unable to counter Pakistan's narrative in West Asia. China is also rapidly expanding its influence in West Asia and this is a big challenge for India.
JNU Professor Rajan Kumar says that the growing communal divide or anti-Muslim sentiment in Indian politics is directly affecting India's interests in West Asia.
Rajankumar says that while this does not affect the rulers of the Gulf countries, it does affect the people there. If there was democracy in these countries, people would have come out on the streets and protested.