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| Turkey: What will Tayyip Erdogan do after another victory? |
The second phase of the presidential election in Turkey will begin on May 28 as no candidate could get the required 50 percent of the votes in the first phase of the election on May 14.
The contest between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and joint opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu will be the first such contest in the country's political history.
Erdogan is widely seen as the front-runner in the contest, having narrowly missed out on the presidency in the first round.
With Erdogan's control of most state resources and media outlets down by about five percent, Kılıçdaroğlu faces an uphill battle.
Since May 14, he has tried to change the political landscape by changing the tone of his rhetoric, when ultra-nationalist candidate Sinan Ogun won more than five percent of the vote in the first round.
Who has more enthusiasm?
Despite major economic problems and devastating earthquakes in February, Erdoğan managed to get 49.51 percent of the vote in the first round, compared to 44.88 percent for Kalıçdaroğlu, according to preliminary results.
The result contradicted many pre-election opinion polls, some of which had shown Kilicdaroglu ahead of President Erdogan.
Kilicdaroglu has been widely regarded as less ambitious, although he has brought together six parties in the opposition National Alliance and has received support from top Kurdish politicians.
Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told the pro-government news channel A Haber that the runoff would be "easy" and that he did not think the gap of about 2.5 million votes between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu would close.
However, Erdogan told his supporters not to sit back from China and to continue campaigning until May 28 "with the same determination". The 322-seat majority in the 600-seat legislature by Erdogan's ruling People's Alliance in parliamentary elections could play a key role in influencing voters' electoral preferences.
Voter turnout can affect the results
The disillusionment of the opposition has also led to warnings of a lack of motivation among Kilicdaroglu's voters and a possible drop in turnout.
Any significant drop in turnout among Kilicdaroglu's supporters would give Erdogan a chance to secure a comprehensive runoff victory. The overall turnout in the first round was around 88.9 percent.
"There's very little time left in the second round, so changing campaign tactics won't have much of an impact on voter turnout," academic Burke Essen tweeted on May 19. The extent to which the government and the opposition manage to bring their voters to the polling stations will determine the outcome of the election. The opposition needs to be organized at every ballot box and it needs to motivate its voters.
What will be the next strategy?
Erdogan rallied supporters in the first term by accusing the opposition of links to terrorist groups, criticizing the government's military investment, and reiterating anti-LGBT and anti-Western rhetoric.
Ahead of the run-off, he is expected to stress the importance of political 'stability', as well as visit earthquake-hit areas. In contrast, Kılıçdaroğlu has stepped up his campaign by taking a more aggressive tone on immigration and terrorism to attract nationalist voters.
In a speech on May 18, he said, "Erdogan, you did not protect the country's borders and honor. You deliberately brought more than one million refugees to this country. As soon as I come to power, I will send all the refugees home." will
This marks a stark contrast to his pre-May 14 statements, which were far more comprehensive and did not have an unusual emphasis on refugees.
While he has not yet endorsed any candidate, he has repeatedly said his "red lines" include the return of refugees, the fight against terrorist organizations, and distancing himself from what he says are political parties. who has the support of terrorist groups?
What's next now?
If Erdogan wins another election, he will serve his second and final five-year term under the new presidential system of government. His future plans are unclear and he has not publicly named a successor after more than two decades in power.
However, Erdogan will be expected to continue to centralize his powers, tighten his grip on state institutions and crack down on dissidents.
He will also be expected to continue his aggressive foreign policy toward the West, as Turkey seeks to pursue closer ties with Russia and China.
A victory for Kilicdaroglu could create constitutional uncertainty, as his presidency would have to contend with the People's Coalition's parliamentary majority.
"If Ağrıçıdaroğlu wins, the ``right-wing populist majority in parliament'' can be expected to block any move toward democracy," wrote Kençu Camılıbel, a journalist for the independent news website T24, on May 19.
However, he warned that if they lose, it will be "the beginning of Turkey's transition from a so-called democracy to a real dictatorship".