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| Is the decision to conduct the election under the old census instead of the digital one a technical matter or a political interference? |
On Saturday, July 15, Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah clarified in one of his policy statements that the general elections will be held according to the old census, the government has decided not to publish the results of the new census. When the Assembly is dissolved after completing its term, the Election Commission will be bound to conduct the election under the old census.
The question here is what kind of political and technical complications are there in conducting general elections according to the new digital census that the government does not want to publish its results. Is there more political interference or are technical issues more pressing?
The Federal Interior Minister also mentioned the objections of some political parties on the new census and said that MQM is more dissatisfied with the new census. There is no agreement on the new census.
What objections have been raised by political parties and different groups on the results of the digital census? Now a question also comes to mind according to the census of 2017, according to which constituencies were made in the year 2022, are there any interests of the government and its allies in holding elections?
And did the political parties have reservations about that census?
What are the constitutional requirements without fulfilling which it is not possible to hold elections under the new census? If the election is conducted based on the old census and the constituencies according to it, how will the strategy of the political parties be arranged?
We try to cover the above-mentioned aspects in the light of experts' opinions.
According to the new census, what hindered the election?
Answering the question of what is the hindrance in holding elections according to the new census, former Federal Secretary of Election Commission Kanwar Dalshad said that after the gazette notification of the new census, the Election Commission will have four months to delimit the constituencies according to the census. It will take time.'
If this happens, the election will not be held within the prescribed constitutional period. But in the case of constituencies under the 2017 census, the elections can be dissolved before the National Assembly or at the appointed time in both cases.
Why can't elections be held according to the new census? What is the constitutional obstacle in this? When this question was put before the political analyst Murtaza Solangi, he said that according to sub-section five of Article 51A of the Constitution, the election will be held according to the last census published officially.
Elections cannot be held as per the new census because the government believed that the digital census would be completed by April and constituencies would be demarcated by August. Before that, the Council of Common Interests will approve it.
Meanwhile, the assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were dissolved and there were no elected chief ministers. Suppose that even if the results of the digital census are published after the seats of the national and provincial assemblies will change, the change of seats is impossible without a constitutional amendment, and a two-thirds majority in both houses is required for a constitutional amendment.
He says that an assembly is ending after two weeks, but even if it wants to do it now, a two-thirds majority is not there. Thus, if the constitutional amendment cannot be done, the seats will remain the same as in the previous census. So there are technical reasons, based on which the elections will be held under the 2017 census.
According to analyst Zaigham Khan, Article 51 (3) of the Constitution states how many seats there will be in the National Assembly and how many seats there will be in the four provinces and the federal capital. All this is part of the Constitution and can only be changed by amending the Constitution.
According to sub-section five of Article 51A of the Constitution, the seats of the National and Provincial Assembly shall be based on the last officially published census.
He says that as Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has said, if it is not published officially, it has no effect, nor is it constitutionally mandatory to determine the seats again. If they publish it, a new constitutional dispute will arise because a constitutional amendment is necessary for the new distribution of their seats and they do not have the full number.
According to the new census, are there more technical or political problems in conducting the election?
In the current situation, technical issues are more involved in not publishing the official results of the new census and not holding elections accordingly, or is there more political interference?
In response to this question, analyst Dr. Rasool Bakhsh Rais says that the main reason for not revealing the results of the new census is that there may be a split in the existing 13 coalition parties.
The MQM says that Karachi's population is under-represented and the Sindhi population is over-represented, thus the seats will have to be reshuffled, which they believe could harm urban areas. But is this kind of falsification really done in the census? I don't think that there has been any mistake in this digital census.
Electoral expert Rashid Chaudhary associated with the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) considers this to be a political problem in the current situation, but he also considers it a technical problem rather than a political one.
According to him, it may technically take more time to conduct the election as per the final results of the digital census.
It is also a political issue rather than a technical one, in that the results may be delayed due to the objections of the provinces, political parties, and various groups within the provinces. Even if the mandatory results come immediately and the constituencies are done, even then our constitutional deadline for holding elections will not be fulfilled.
He says that 'if the assemblies are dissolved on time, then within two months, if they are dissolved before time, elections must be held within ninety days, while it may take four to six months for constituencies.'
On this aspect, Zaigham Khan says that it has both technical and constitutional aspects. There will not be a political consensus for the notification of the new census, if the government still does it, then the election will be difficult in November, December, or even in January and February. Because the Election Commission will need time for delimitation. In this way, there will be a delay in the holding of the election, which both the government and the establishment do not want
According to the old census, the election will be held under which constituencies?
After Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah's decision not to publicize the results of the new census, the question is under which constituencies will the current election be held?
According to Dr. Rasool Bakhsh Raees, if the final results of the census are not brought forward, the elections will be as per the old census and the constituencies will also remain the same.
According to Rashid Chaudhary, the new constituencies that took place in 2022 were based on the final results of the 2017 census. The 2018 elections were held in line with the interim results of the 2017 census through a constitutional amendment.
According to him, the official results of the digital census have not been published yet. New constituencies cannot be made until these results are published and approved by the Council of Common Interests. Most likely, the upcoming elections will be based on the 2017 census, based on which new constituencies were drawn in August 2022.
Why was there a need for a new census after the old census?
Census is generally held after ten years. But with us, it has been taking a lot of time. Census was conducted in 1981, followed by the census in 1998, and again in 2017. After that, it was decided to conduct the digital census.
According to former Federal Secretary of Election Commission Kanwar Dalshad, "It is an international formula that the census will be held after ten years." But after the 2017 digital census was started. This was the decision of those who considered themselves Aristotle in the previous regime
According to Zaigham Khan, the 2018 elections were held according to the 2017 census and I think it will still be the same because according to the constitution, a census is necessary after ten years.
According to Rashid Chaudhary, 'While making the 2017 census results official, the then government had promised and all the provinces and political parties had agreed that the digital census would be conducted immediately.'
Why are the results of the census controversial?
Why do our political parties or individuals make the census results controversial? What is the main reason for this?
Dr. Rasool Bakhsh Rais said in this regard that "linguistic and group interests are dearer than national interests in politics. Baloch tribes in Balochistan are in danger that their politics may be threatened if their numbers decrease in the census." Is. A similar case is that of Sindhis and Muhajirs in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, which is made controversial.
He further comments that 'Similarly there are NFC award issues between provinces. If the home minister also starts saying that there are some problems with the census, then questions will arise about its validity and accuracy.
According to Zaigham Khan, there were no problems in the 2017 census, but despite this, it was made controversial. Each province wants to show the maximum number so that it gets more share of the NFC award and gets a maximum number of seats based on population. It is a shame because if the provinces are showing that they have so much population growth, it means they have failed in the areas of health, awareness, and education.
According to Rashid Chaudhary, "There was a consensus among political parties on the digital census, but it was launched very late and its results have the same reservations as the 2017 census."
What will be the strategy of political parties?
Under the digital census, the population of Balochistan has seen a tremendous increase. This increase is about 78% more than the 2017 census.
The second increase is in Sindh province. If constituencies are done according to the new census, then while the number of National Assembly constituencies would have decreased in Punjab, these seats would have increased in Balochistan.
The constitutional requirement is that when a new census is held and the official results are published, the seats in the National Assembly should be redistributed accordingly.
A constitutional amendment is required to increase the number of seats in the assemblies, reshuffle and distribute the seats of the National Assembly among the provinces.
What will be the strategy of political parties now?
According to Dr. Rasool Bakhsh Raees, we all know that the whole race is up to the electives. A challenge is also whether Tehreek-e-Insaaf will be completely 'managed' or not? Whatever kind of elections are held, questions will continue to be raised on their transparency and health.