 |
| China-mediated agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore relations beneficial or harmful for India? |
One of the major changes that have taken place in India's foreign policy in the last ten years is India's changing relations with the Gulf countries. Ever since Narendra Modi came to power in India, the region has been viewed from a deeper and strategic perspective.
This was said by Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar when he was asked about India's changing relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries.
India's cooperation with the Gulf countries in many important sectors is continuously increasing. India is working with these Gulf countries in the energy and security sectors and India has good relations with most of the Gulf countries.
The most important in this connection is the oil and gas business. In addition, Indian nationals work in large numbers in Gulf countries and remit foreign exchange back home, which is an important aspect of this relationship.
India and the United Arab Emirates signed a 'Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) last year. Under this agreement, emphasis has been placed on increasing trade as well as increasing services and investment.
India buys the most crude oil from Iraq, followed by Saudi Arabia. However, India's crude oil imports from Russia have increased significantly in the recent past.
In this situation, the changing relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran and India's role in the background has also sparked a debate in the country.
China is also an important part of the discussion that has led Saudi Arabia and Iran to agree to restore diplomatic relations.
Whether the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is beneficial or harmful for India, let's take a quick look at this agreement.
What is the agreement between Saudi and Iran?
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been enemies for decades in the Middle East, are now changing.
Both countries have announced the restoration of diplomatic relations. Both have agreed to open embassies within two months and to respect each other's sovereignty and non-interference in each other's internal affairs.
This decision was announced after four days of talks between the representatives of the two countries in China.
On Friday, Iran's top security official Ali Shamkhani, and Saudi Arabia's security adviser Moseed bin Mohammad al-Uban signed the agreement. China's top diplomat Wang Yi was also present on this occasion.
He termed the agreement as a victory for negotiations and peace. He also said that China will continue to play a constructive role in solving difficult global problems.
In such a situation, it becomes necessary to see in the context of India, what will change in the interests of India in the Gulf countries, the declining interest of the United States, and the efforts of China to increase its influence.
India balances the rivalry between the two countries
Before knowing the answer to this question, it is important to understand the situation of conflict between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and America and the difficulties faced by India. How did the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia deteriorate?
Seven years ago, Iran and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties after a major dispute.
In 2016, Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran after a prominent Shia cleric was executed in Saudi Arabia.
Since then, there has been considerable tension between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shia-majority Iran.
Hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran began shortly after the Iranian revolution in 1979. Then Iran called for the implementation of the rule of religion by abolishing the monarchy in all Muslim countries.
In 1981, Iraq attacked Iran and Saudi Arabia supported Iraq. Currently, Saudi Arabia and Iran are embroiled in ongoing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Libya.
In the confusion and conflict between these countries, the interests of the United States and Israel have made the situation more complicated.
Since India's interests are intertwined with both countries, India has to maintain a balance in its foreign policy. But if experts are to be believed, the situation is looking a bit favorable for India at the moment as India's two friends who were enemies earlier are now becoming friends.
Professor AK Pasha, an expert on West Asia at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says that the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has had an impact on the Gulf countries and the entire world. The mutual problems of the two countries have become global problems. Other countries also joined it like Egypt, Turkey, Russia, and China indirectly.
As far as India is concerned, due to American pressure due to Iran's nuclear program, India had to reduce its trade with Iran. Gradually, as the matter became more complicated, India began to develop closer ties with Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. At the same time, Iran moved away from India and its proximity to China increased.
"It has been difficult for India, but it hasn't hurt it much yet," says AK Pasha.
The role of China
until we don't think it is right to jump to any conclusions on the recent decision of AK Pasha Iran and Saudi Arabia. He says that these diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to be seen for some time. Its immediate effects on India are not visible. This is a good step. But India should think that China has taken advantage of this.
Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University's Center for South Asian Studies sees China's growing role in Arab countries as a matter of concern for India, but he also says that China's role in the current transformation has been exaggerated. is being done.
He says that it is not completely correct to say that China has an important role in the negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been trying to improve their relations for the past three to four years. Informal discussions were going on. But, now it had to be formalized, so the matter has been moved forward.
Professor Bhardwaj says that India is a very important country in Asia. India is as big a market for oil and natural gas for Saudi Arabia and Iran as it is for China. India's economy is also growing at a rate of 6-7 percent.
India is also strengthening relations with Iran in connection with Central Asian countries. He is also developing the Chabahar port. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia see India as a friendly country and adopt a soft attitude towards Kashmir.
He says that both China and India have their own strategic, economic, and political interests. There is no conflict between them which is seen between China and India in India's neighboring countries.
In terms of neighboring countries, India faces a direct challenge in terms of regional security. But, the Gulf countries have their own views on security. If China is increasing its influence in the Middle East, competition in the energy sector will increase, but the remaining investment opportunities will remain equal for both countries.
What is the challenge for India?
Experts believe that between India and the Gulf countries, India's administrative problems and political calculations also become important and here the hands of India are tied to some extent.
"China is expanding its influence and trade through the Belt and Road Initiative, which India should do, but India does not have as much capital as China," says AK Pasha.
China can also use direct political influence which India does not want to do. India does not want to anger America and Israel. China can do this because it has direct tensions with the United States.
Sanjay K Bhardwaj, on the other hand, says that India takes a little time to deliver because it is a democratic country and cannot take decisions like China. That is why the implementation of any decision is delayed. China takes a small advantage in this.