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| Can India overtake China to become a global superpower? |
According to the United Nations, India has recently overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world. But can India match China or surpass its global superpower neighbor?
In terms of economic, geopolitical influence, and military power, China has a significant advantage over India. But analysts say this situation is changing.
Michael Spence, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001, believes that 'India's time has come.'
Stanford University's dean and professor told BBC that India will reach the level of China. China's economic growth will slow down, but India's will not.
However, there are challenges for India.
China is the world's second-largest economy, almost five times larger than India (which ranks fifth).
India has a relatively small middle class and to become as successful as China, India will need to invest heavily in education, living standards, gender equality, and economic reforms.
And being a global superpower has nothing to do with population and economics. It depends on geopolitical and military power which India is far behind.
Soft power also plays a key role. India's Bollywood film industry has been very effective in promoting the country internationally and breaking records on Netflix.
But then China has 'Chinawood': China's own fast-growing powerhouse film industry that overtook Hollywood as the world's biggest box office for the first time in 2020, and again in 2021. What did
India's Economic Growth Pace
Today, 86,000 babies are born in India every day, compared to 49,400 in China.
China's population is already shrinking with a declining reproduction rate and is set to fall below one billion by the end of this century.
According to the United Nations, India's population will continue to grow by 2064, from 1.4 billion today to 1.7 billion in 2064.
This will give India a demographic dividend, a term that refers to the country's rapid economic growth thanks to an increase in the working population.
Professor Mark Frazier, director of the India-China Institute in New York, says that India is now reaping the benefits of incremental reforms in the 1990s. But the extent to which its workforce is educated, healthy, skilled, and able to contribute to the economy matters more.
Despite attracting major multinationals such as Apple and FocusKon in recent months, India's internal bureaucracy and frequent policy changes have kept some international investors from investing in India due to instability. has stopped
"It's a 19th-century idea that the more population you have, the more powerful you are," added Professor Frazier, but there are other factors.
According to the World Bank, only half of Indians of working age (aged 14-64) are working or looking for jobs today.
When it comes to women, the figure is 25 percent or less. This figure is 60 percent in China and 52 percent in the European Union.
China's economy has grown faster than any other country after a series of reforms in the 1980s and 1990s. But Covid, an aging population, and growing tensions with the West have hampered the country's growth.
India's GDP is already growing faster than China's and IMF projections show that this is likely to continue.
But does slow growth mean China will be left behind?
"If China grows at 4 percent or 5 percent by 2030, that would be impressive," says Professor Spence. People may think that this slowdown is not good for a country that is growing at the rate of 8-9%, but it is not right to think so.
China is now more like America. Our growth rate has never been 8, 9, or 10 percent. They will rely on productivity growth and I think they can get there with massive investment in education, science, and technology.
Investments made in the Chinese military
Both China and India are nuclear powers, so both have a regional influence on the global scene.
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Beijing has two and a half times more nuclear weapons than New Delhi.
China's armed forces outnumber India's by nearly 600,000 and have invested heavily in the defense industry.
Professor Frazier says India is heavily dependent on Russia and imported technology and expertise, while China is doing a lot of research and local production of military infrastructure.
In the defense sector, China has a clear advantage, but India has better relations with Europe and the United States, which are the countries that have the world's strongest military forces.
Professor Frazier says that India can be an important regional partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The US government is creating a security zone around China, which includes not only East Asia but also South Asia. It includes not only the western part of the Pacific Ocean but also the Indian Ocean regions.
Alternatives in global regional politics
India is the host country for the G20 summit this year and the meetings have shown that it is one of the world's wealthiest countries85 percent want to promote themselves in the segment.
China's relationship with the world's most powerful countries has deteriorated since the time of Donald Trump in the United States. But from Russia and South Africa to Saudi Arabia and the European Union, China is still a major economic partner for more than 120 countries.
With the Belt and Road project's trillions of dollars of infrastructure, China wields considerable political influence abroad.
The West views India as an important regional partner, but Beijing is among the five countries that have permanent membership in the UN Security Council. That is, it can veto any major global decision.
India and other developing countries have been trying to change this situation for decades, but no success has been achieved in this regard.
Professor Frazier says, "As for the composition of the new future members of the Security Council, I cannot make any bets." It is obvious that from 1945 till today the decisions of world security are taken by the winners of the war.
Professor Michael Spence agrees. "Voting power does not correspond to a country's economy and influence." At some point or another, the world will have to reform these institutions, otherwise, they will lose their importance because alternatives will emerge.
The current alternative is the BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Its aim is to counter the global influence of the North.
Soft power
A century ago, Hollywood made cinema a weapon of power and transferred American values and influence to other countries.
China and India have also been successful in adopting this strategy.
The number of cinemas in China has increased 20-fold since 2007. There are more than 80,000 cinemas in China, 41,000 in America, and 9,300 in India.
"Before the pandemic, Chinawood expanded its global influence and production by buying or partnering with Hollywood film studios," says Wendy Xu, a professor of media and cultural studies at the University of California, Berkeley.
It outperformed the US film market during 2020 and 2021, but in 2022 this performance dropped to 36% as cinemas were forced to close due to Covid.
Bollywood is actually called the Hollywood of Asia, but most people are unaware of the term Chinawood.
Professor Soo explains that 'Bollywood's influence around the world is huge.'
Even in China, Bollywood movies entertain Chinese citizens. Dangal (Aamir Khan's film on ex-wrestler released in 2016) fared better than any Hollywood film in China and topped the Chinese box office for 16 consecutive days. Its exhibition lasted for 60 days, which is one of the longest exhibitions in history.