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| Economy and Democracy: In which direction is Pakistan Moving? |
Pakistan's economy has been facing a lot of trouble for some time now, and the last year in particular has been quite disastrous for Pakistan on the economic front.
The political situation that arose after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power by a successful no-confidence motion in April 2022 has exacerbated the current economic crisis.
Pakistan has been calling for a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to get its sagging economy back on track, but the PDM government's efforts over the past few months have apparently failed to bear fruit. are
In such a situation, these questions are being raised now whether Pakistan is really on the verge of default? Is democracy in danger in Pakistan? And what can be the country's future based on the current situation?
The BBC spoke to some experts to find out the answers to these questions.
Political tension
The recent political tension in Pakistan had started sometime before Imran Khan was ousted from power, but it accelerated when Chairman Tehreek-e-Insaf launched a nationwide movement demanding the holding of new general elections as soon as possible. started
An alleged assassination attempt on Imran Khan and finally the arrest of the former Prime Minister by the Rangers from the premises of the Islamabad High Court on May 9 and the subsequent violent protests worsened the situation.
Protesters against the arrest took out their anger by targeting military installations and demanding the release of Imran Khan.
But some experts believe that this major development has given the Pakistani army, whose officers have been heavily criticized by former Prime Minister Imran Khan during his speeches, a chance to regain lost credibility with the public.
According to experts, after the steps taken in the wake of November, Imran Khan is now apparently on the back foot while his party is in disarray and disarray. In his recent interview with Reuters, Imran Khan once again alleged that the military establishment is involved in the ongoing crackdown on his party. However, in the recent past, the army has repeatedly denied allegations of interference in politics.
After the November events, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leaders, their supporters and social media workers were harassed, arrested, and prosecuted, while some party workers involved in attacks on army installations were arrested. But cases are also being tried in military courts.
In such a situation, there is a concern in the world about the human rights situation in Pakistan and the future of democracy. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Reporters Without Borders have issued statements expressing concern over the developments in Pakistan.
Amnesty International wrote in its statement that "Trialing civilians in military courts is against international law." On the other hand, Human Rights Watch has asked the Pakistani government to stop arresting political activists of opposition parties.
Recently, a group of US parliamentarians wrote a letter to US Secretary of State Anthony Bilkin in which the US lawmakers urged the Biden government to press for democratic reforms in Pakistan.
Pakistan's Army and Democracy
The question of democracy in Pakistan has always been a difficult one. Author and political commentator Vasatullah Khan say that it is also argued here that not every country can have a democratic system like Britain.
Different countries have their own social, political, and historical truth. That is why whatever system exists in China, North Korea, and Iran, is also a form of democracy for some people.
He says that in principle it can be claimed that Pakistan is a democratic country, but everyone knows that it is not 100% true.
"We have a parliament, institutions, electoral system, and resources, but democracy is not in its original spirit."
Pointing to the interference and influence of the military in the country's politics, Vasat explained that those who have been running the country for the past seventy years are responsible for the current crisis.
Political analyst Ahsan Butt's opinion on the issue of the army is broadly similar to that of Vasatullah Khan. In a research paper written for the 'Journal of Democracy', Ahsan has given his arguments on the military's intervention in Pakistan's politics.
He says the Pakistani military's meddling in politics stems from the belief that civilians are corrupt and short-sighted and that if the country is handed over to politicians, disaster will ensue.
Ahsan says that the army has had a significant influence on politics even in the era of democracy in Pakistan.
However, the Pakistani military has historically denied any role in politics.
In his farewell address on November 23, 2022, the former army chief said that criticism of the army is because the army has been interfering in politics for the past 70 years, which was 'unconstitutional', but it was unanimously decided in February 2021. That the army will not interfere in politics in the future.
Political commentator Zahid Hussain says that the people's trust in democracy has been shaken by seeing whatever form of democracy has been in the present era.
Zahid says the government must also take responsibility for the infighting between institutions and the growing polarization in the country that has undermined the democratic process and is more challenging than ever to get it back on track.
Zahid says, "Both of the pictures."Rukh gives the power game a dangerous twist. The opposition (Tehreek-e-Insaf) is standing against the military establishment while the government is against the Supreme Court. No one knows the end of all this.
Economic crisis
According to some experts, Pakistan's political and economic crises are connected to each other. Experts believe that the political upheaval may not have directly caused the economic crisis, but it certainly contributed to its growth.
According to the report of the Asian Development Bank, the GDP was 6 percent when Imran Khan was removed from power in April last year, while the country's GDP growth rate is expected to reach 0.6 percent in the current fiscal year.
Last year's devastating floods, payments crisis, and political upheaval have made the situation even more dire.
In 2019, Pakistan signed an agreement to receive a bailout package of $6.5 billion from the IMF and Pakistan is continuously trying to get the final installment of $1.1 billion under this agreement, but it has yet to receive it. No success.
Recently, the State Bank of Pakistan informed that the country's foreign exchange reserves have reduced to 4.19 billion dollars, while experts estimate that this amount is hardly enough for one month's imports.
Pakistan's Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has hinted in the past that the IMF program could end on June 30 without further progress, but the finance minister also stressed that Pakistan was not on the default path.
This uncertainty has created a panic-like situation on the economic front in the country and due to this uncertainty, the Pakistani rupee is continuously depreciating against the US dollar.
In the past, one dollar was equal to 310 Pakistani rupees in the open market. Whereas, until the removal of Imran Khan in April 2022, the price of one dollar was equivalent to 182 Pakistani rupees.
Risk of default?
However, economist Ashfaq Hassan believes that Pakistan is not on the path of default. He says that the country has seen worse conditions after the nuclear tests in 1998, if the country did not default before, it will not default again.
Ashfaq says that the State Bank has already tightened its import bill. If it is continuously monitored, the foreign exchange reserves of Pakistan will be reduced to around 5 billion dollars. Therefore, we will be able to pay the loan installments and not become defaulters.
On the other hand, economist Shabar Zaidi says that default or not, Pakistan's economy is already in trouble and this government is not capable of dealing with it.
In April this year, the rate of inflation in the country was recorded at 36.4 percent. The main reason behind this was the rise in food prices. Note that this is the highest inflation rate among South Asian countries.
Shabarzaidi believes that no sane person can even think of exiting the IMF program because it would cause massive losses.
He says that reforms in the economy should not be a political issue. Politics should be kept out of it. Our exports are decreasing and our debts are increasing. This is not something that any government can handle on its own. An economic revolution is needed to save the country.
On the other hand, the head of the IMF mission, Nathan Porter, has said that it is essential that the next budget is made in keeping with the IMF program, which will mean very few subsidies.
This year is the year of general elections in Pakistan. This is the reason why the ruling coalition 'Pakistan Democratic Movement' wants to give concessions in petrol prices along with other concessions in the upcoming budget.
According to experts, if the government decides to withdraw from the IMF program, the risk of Pakistan defaulting may increase significantly, but if it decides to continue with the IMF, it will have to take some tough decisions. The effect of which can be seen in the elections.
But economists believe that the current economic situation is not only an indicator of the political tension of the past year, but it is the result of the decisions made in the last few decades, the same decisions that have brought Pakistan to the current situation.