Could a Ukrainian counterattack force Russian forces to retreat?

 

Could a Ukrainian counterattack force Russian forces to retreat?
Could a Ukrainian counterattack force Russian forces to retreat?

A thin 19-year-old Ukrainian soldier lies on a stretcher in an ambulance and can be heard moaning as the anesthesia wears off.


As soon as he regains consciousness, the young soldier's hand first goes to the oxygen mask on his face. He is covered in dirt. 'Give me my rifle,' he groans as he tries to remove the mask.


Dr. Anna Dimitra pats the young soldier's sallow cheeks and says: 'In most cases, this is the condition of soldiers, there is a lot of stress.'


The 19-year-old soldier faints again and the ambulance carrying him turns at high speed on a bend in the direction of southeastern Zaporizhia, away from the front line.


The name of this young soldier is Olia.


On Friday morning, a Russian mortar shell exploded near their trench, and the shrapnel from it hit Olya in the lower back. It is possible that due to this their spinal cord has also been damaged.


Dr. Anna Dimitra works in a private hospital affiliated with MOAS. The organization runs the hospital on funds provided by Western countries.


She says: 'Auliya is apparently stable but her condition is critical. We have many such cases coming up," she says, adding that there have been about half a dozen such cases in the recent past.


A BBC team has moved closer to the southern front line under tight security as Ukraine escalates its counter-offensive against Russia.


The situation in Russia and Ukraine on the front line


The death toll in Ukraine has increased since the retaliation began. Many militaries and analysts are now wondering whether Ukraine can benefit from this.


He opined that as Russia bolstered its defensive line by sending logistics and weapons over the winter, it would be easier for Ukraine to breach it.


"If we don't get more help [from the West], we can lose this battle," says Ukrainian soldier Krylo Potras.


In 2020, his lower left leg had to be amputated due to a Russian mine explosion. But they are once again on the battlefield. Poitras says that the Russian soldiers have laid large-scale landmines here, proving to be a challenge for them.


He says that the number of Russian soldiers is very high. They also have a large number of anti-tank guns and they also have missile systems.


It has only been a month since the counter-offensive, but many experts and soldiers are questioning the effectiveness of the operation. They say that the initial phase did not go according to plan. They say that the nearly 1,000 km long front line cannot be broken at the speed at which Ukraine achieved success last year.


Over the past few weeks, I have visited the front line in three different locations and met many different people.


We can divide the opinions of these people into three main groups, the first group is those who consider Russia's defense line to be like tin, the second is those who believe that Russia's defense line is like wood, and the third is that of glass. Says like.


The first argument


About two weeks ago, a doctor working at a field hospital in Bakhmut, Donbas, told me that Russia's defense line was like tin.


Amidst the sound of gunfire and explosions, he said that the death toll was increasing in Ukraine. He warned that Russia has had plenty of time to strengthen its defense line, sending large numbers of troops there.


He says that Ukraine may be able to push Russia back a little, perhaps ten kilometers, but it will have to work hard to weaken Russia's hold on eastern and southeastern parts of Ukraine.


He says with disappointment that 'I think this issue will not be resolved on the battlefield, it can be resolved only through political compromise.'


Second argument


Another argument about Russia's defense line was that it was like wood, that is, it could be broken, shattered, but not completely destroyed.


A man told me this in Velika Novyselka, three hour's drive southwest of Bachmut.


Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing in the mountainous and plain areas in the south of the country towards the Black Sea. They face unexpected attacks while passing through plains filled with Russian mines. So they are making progress slowly. They are conquering small towns and rural towns.


"I really believe it, but some people might call me a pessimist," says 36-year-old soldier Artem, amid the roar of Ukrainian jets.


They say that the morale of the Russian troops was low and that Ukraine may gain some advantage in the coming months.


But they say that the way Ukraine succeeded in counterattacking in November, nothing like that seems to be happening now.


He says that if there is an attempt to break the defense line in Russia, it is not known what price Ukraine will have to pay for it. "The media and society are in a hurry, but it can be bad," he says.


It is clearly visible that those living near the front line and ground in the Ukrainian counterattack soldiers involved in the operation are disillusioned with the war.


You can say that he has more experience than others and his opinion is based on ground facts. But it is also important to say that being on the front line, these soldiers are unable to see the big picture, instead they focus on only a small part of the larger military operation.


The third argument


Prominent generals such as Western military analyst Mike Ryan and British Chief of Army Staff Sir Tony Radacon describe the Russian defense line as glassy.


He believes the retaliation has already begun and is proceeding as planned. In a matter of weeks or months, Russia will be weakened and Ukraine will be able to strategically control large swaths of it, and perhaps even close to Crimea.


Adherents of this argument say that they need to maintain patience and avoid pessimism. They say that if Ukrainian airstrikes are scaled back, they will not be able to destroy the Russian "operational system" in the early stages as quickly as planned.


Ukraine's military is using surface-to-air missiles and is also attacking Russian military bases in more and more places.


It seeks to contain the Russian army as much as possible, reduce its numbers and destroy its weapons.


In the UK Parliament this week, Sir Tony Radacon explained Ukraine's strategy in the war. He said that Ukraine is adopting the approach of 'starve, stretch and strike' (starve the enemy and prolong the war and then attack) and the Russian army has lost half of its strength so far.


On the other hand, at the field hospital where we met 19-year-old Olya as she was being taken by ambulance to Zaporizhia, we also met a Ukrainian doctor. He asked us to use only his first name 'Yuheen'.


Like most of the soldiers and officers we met in recent days, he is optimistic about Ukraine in this war.


Sitting outside the field hospital, Yeohin said with a smile on his face amid the sound of explosions: 'Everyone is looking forward to a big victory. We believe in ourselves and we are waiting. We know everything will be alright. We just need to be patient.'

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