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| Has China succeeded in putting Taiwan and the US on the back foot with military exercises? |
In recent days, China has once again conducted military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan, but the factors behind it are very interesting.
According to some experts, China has eased the intensity of these derivatives due to the upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan.
According to experts, in these elections held after nine months, China wants the victory of Taiwan's opposition party Kuomintang or KMT given its interest.
No missiles were fired near Taiwan during the drills, and the drills lasted only three days, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, an American politician who met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, was not banned.
China's reaction was even harsher when former Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei last August.
"These Chinese exercises have become an integral part of China's operational procedures since Nancy Pelosi's visit," said Chen Shen-yin, a professor at Taiwan's National Chengchi University.
They need to be aware of their position, but their reaction should not go to this extreme.
The Chinese Communist Party defeated the KMT in a civil war that ended in 1949 and then forced it to flee to Taiwan, but in recent decades the former rivals have forged common ground with a 1992 consensus that (in vague terms) is said that there is only 'One China' which includes Taiwan.
According to Professor Yen, if Beijing's hard-line rhetoric continues, it will face a successful election campaign by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
The KMT won big in last year's local elections, but analysts say China's policies could influence the outcome of the presidential election.
Fang Yuchen, a professor at Taiwan's Soochow University, says that China has adopted a two-pronged strategy, in which it is offering a carrot with one hand and a stick with the other.
On the one hand, China has agreed to economic and cultural cooperation with Taiwan in the form of its adherence to the 'One China principle, as well as its own military exercises.
"China wants to tell the Taiwanese people that if they vote for the DPP, there will be war and if they vote for the KMT, there will be peace," says Fang Yuchen.
"There is a lack of balance in this strategy, but on the other hand, China is also facing intense internal pressure to take tough action against Taiwan, especially in a situation where China itself is promoting nationalism among its own citizens."
If China's military drills were meant to scare politicians in the US and Taiwan that China is moving closer to its targets, they have succeeded.
In response, Taiwan has sought to defuse tensions surrounding the McCarthy meeting.
Last July, Makarathi had said that if he becomes the Congress Speaker, he will lead a delegation to bring Congress members here.
According to the report in the Financial Times, he has received information from sources that the Tsai administration persuaded him to hold the meeting in the United States because of security concerns in Taiwan.
The meeting was not highlighted much by the US side and it was said that this is the seventh visit of Tsai since coming to power. Both the US and Taiwan call it a 'transit' or 'stopover' - the act of spending some time in a third country while traveling to another country, but neither calls it a 'visit'.
"The US and Taiwan have learned a lesson not to over-expose their relationship," says Professor Shen.
But he says it's a victory for Taiwan because McCarthy was the highest-ranking US administration official that any Taiwanese president has met since 1979. It should be noted that in 1979, the United States ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The Taiwan issue is considered to be the biggest 'flash point' in US-China relations. China believes that Taiwan is part of it and is willing to use force to take back its control.
However, the US is increasingly supporting Taiwan and China has accused the US of trying to undermine its 'One China Policy'.
Under this policy, the US recognizes the status of China and not the island of Taiwan. China views Taiwan as an island that has been separated from it but will one day be rejoined.
However, this is different from the 'One China' principle, according to which China believes that Taiwan is a very important part of 'One China' and will one day be annexed to it.
US policy is by no means an endorsement of Beijing's position, but the US maintains an "active relationship" with Taiwan, including arming the island for self-defense.
Last year, President Joe Biden repeatedly reiterated that the United States would intervene if China attacked Taiwan. This statement can be seen against the official position of the United States.
The US will begin joint naval exercises with the Philippines on Tuesday (today) to regroup its forces in Asia.
The US maintains control of four more military bases in the Philippines, located in the South China Sea, three of which are closer to Taiwan.
The people in Taiwan on behalf of ChinaThey appeared remarkably calm during the exercises, which included target practice and taking full control of the island. It should be noted that this process was done by China in August last year as well.
However, Professor Yen is worried that a false sense of security should not reign over the island.
In the latest aggression, Chinese warplanes and ships crossed the 'median line' that unofficially divides Taiwan and China and has been respected for the past 70 years.
"China will continue to conduct such exercises in the future and when it attacks Taiwan one day, it will not have an answer," says Professor Yen.